Initial Results

Key Findings

• We see an impact of temperature on mental health in Ghana but not in Bangalore. See main-table.
• Some explanations for the difference in results across the two contexts:
  • Temperatures in Ghana are hotter than what we observe in Bangalore
  • Consistent with Carleton 2017, impact of temperature on mental health is through income; in Bangalore, factory workers earnings are not tied to temperature. For the farmers in Ghana, high temperatures could lead to lower yields and thus lower income, which could impact mental health.
  • We are simply picking up on the seasonality of mental health we observed in Ghana. Temperatures are declining as we move into the lean season which coincides with the improvement in Mental Health we observe in the data
  • Measurement timing.
    • Difference 1: In Bangalore we have 4 measurements two weeks apart and then another 2 measurements that are 2 months apart. Other within person variations are likely to occur in that time frame, drowning the impact of temperature
    • Difference 2: The Bangalore study occurs over a much larger time frame; from Jan 25, 2023 to Dec 11, 2024. The ghana measurments are all within May - Sept. 2025

Main Results

• No impact of temperature on mental health in bangalore
• We see an impact in Ghana

Caution

Ghana regressions use the short-form scale. In the Bangalore data, we have long-form data which is what the regressions are run on.

Robustness

Note: the results are robust to: - Excluding in-person data from the ghana regressions - Robust to different temperature measures

Bangalore

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Mean Temperature	0.002 (0.005)	0.004 (0.005)	-0.001 (0.002)	0.001 (0.002)
fe
month	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	6,038	6,043	6,047	6,047
R-squared	0.651	0.648	0.589	0.636
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Ghana

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ-2 & GAD-2 - Anderson	Perceived Stress	Worry
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Mean Temperature	0.017*** (0.004)	0.018*** (0.004)	0.008* (0.005)	0.009* (0.005)
fe
period	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	16,938	16,938	16,938	16,938
R-squared	0.386	0.312	0.261	0.294
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Bangalore Subset

Ever Above 84

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Mean Temperature	-0.009 (0.008)	0.000 (0.008)	-0.006* (0.003)	-0.000 (0.004)
fe
month	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	1,154	1,156	1,156	1,156
R-squared	0.668	0.637	0.623	0.615
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Range Above 10

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Mean Temperature	-0.002 (0.006)	0.002 (0.006)	-0.003 (0.003)	0.002 (0.003)
fe
month	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	2,403	2,406	2,407	2,407
R-squared	0.651	0.65	0.575	0.633
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Range Above 15

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Mean Temperature	-0.015 (0.014)	-0.013 (0.014)	-0.003 (0.005)	-0.003 (0.006)
fe
month	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	486	487	487	487
R-squared	0.642	0.601	0.666	0.59
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Data

Temperature

Survey Timing

The Bangalore study occurs over a much larger time frame; from Jan 25, 2023 to Dec 11, 2024. The ghana measurments are all within May - Sept. 2025. In Bangalore, we observe people across a larger range of temperatures and seasons

Appendix

Main Result Robustness

Excluding in-person data in Ghana

Ghana results are robust to only using survey data and excluding endline / baseline data

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ-2 & GAD-2 - Anderson	Perceived Stress	Worry
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Mean Temperature	0.025*** (0.006)	0.028*** (0.006)	0.008 (0.007)	0.007 (0.007)
fe
period	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	10,345	10,345	10,345	10,345
R-squared	0.488	0.399	0.387	0.387
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Using Daily Maximum Temperature

Bangalore

Daily Maximum Temperature

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Maximum Temperature	0.001 (0.003)	0.001 (0.003)	-0.000 (0.001)	0.000 (0.001)
fe
month	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	6,038	6,043	6,047	6,047
R-squared	0.651	0.648	0.589	0.636
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Hourly Temperature

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
coef
Hourly Temperature	-0.002 (0.002)	-0.001 (0.002)	-0.001* (0.001)	0.000 (0.001)
Hourly Apparent Temperature					-0.003 (0.002)	-0.001 (0.002)	-0.001* (0.001)	-0.000 (0.001)
fe
month	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	6,038	6,043	6,047	6,047	6,038	6,043	6,047	6,047
R-squared	0.651	0.648	0.589	0.636	0.651	0.648	0.59	0.636
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Past Temperatures

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ + GAD - Anderson	Loneliness - Z-score	Depression - Z-score
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
coef
Past 2 Weeks Mean Temperature	-0.003 (0.006)	0.000 (0.005)	-0.002 (0.002)	0.002 (0.003)
Past Month Mean Temperature					0.003 (0.007)	0.007 (0.007)	-0.001 (0.003)	0.006* (0.003)
fe
month	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	6,038	6,043	6,047	6,047	6,038	6,043	6,047	6,047
R-squared	0.651	0.648	0.589	0.636	0.651	0.648	0.589	0.636
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Ghana

Daily Max

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ-2 & GAD-2 - Anderson	Perceived Stress	Worry
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
coef
Daily Maximum Temperature	0.012*** (0.003)	0.011*** (0.003)	0.006* (0.003)	0.006* (0.003)
fe
period	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	16,938	16,938	16,938	16,938
R-squared	0.387	0.312	0.261	0.294
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)

Past Temperatures

	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ-2 & GAD-2 - Anderson	Perceived Stress	Worry	All Measures - Anderson	PHQ-2 & GAD-2 - Anderson	Perceived Stress	Worry
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
coef
Past 2 Weeks Mean Temperature	0.020* (0.011)	0.004 (0.011)	0.037*** (0.013)	0.024** (0.012)
Past Month Mean Temperature					0.021 (0.015)	0.011 (0.015)	0.061*** (0.017)	0.030* (0.017)
fe
period	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
pid	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
stats
Observations	16,938	16,938	16,938	16,938	16,938	16,938	16,938	16,938
R-squared	0.386	0.311	0.262	0.294	0.386	0.311	0.262	0.294
Significance levels: * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. Format of coefficient cell: Coefficient (Std. Error)